A cluster of smaller countries is emerging as unlikely drivers of Kenya’s tea export growth, signalling a shift in global demand patterns, as traditional markets show signs of strain and geopolitical disruptions alter trade routes.

Analysis of a sector performance report for 2025 by the Tea Board of Kenya (TBK) shows that while Pakistan remains dominant, Oman, Kazakhstan and Chad recorded the fastest growth in 2025, helping to lift Kenya’s overall tea export volumes as some established destinations slowed.

The changing export landscape reflects a combination of shifting consumer preferences, supply chain disruptions, and strategic repositioning by key trading hubs, pointing to a gradual reconfiguration of Kenya’s tea trade away from its historic anchors.

Part of this shift has been driven by geopolitical instability in parts of Africa and the Middle East.

The report notes that Chad “has developed as an emerging market for Kenya tea through direct importation following the blockage of trade routes with Sudan”.

The landlocked Central African nation — whose orders from Kenya climbed 42.81 percent to 5.66 million kilogrammes(kg) — has increasingly turned to alternative transit corridors through Nigeria and Cameroon, creating a new demand channel for Kenyan tea that did not previously exist at scale.

At the same time, Oman cemented its position as a strategic gateway for tea into the Gulf region, underlining how logistics hubs are becoming central to trade flows.

“Oman is rapidly growing as an emerging market for Kenyan tea following its re-positioning as a regional re-export and logistics hub for the Gulf Region, particularly to Yemen, Saudi Arabia, and Iran,” TBK said.

Exports to Oman surged by 320.14 percent in 2025 to 17.77 million kilogrammes from 4.23 million kilogrammes the year before, making it one of the fastest-growing destinations for Kenyan tea.

The growth highlights how re-export centres are absorbing larger volumes as traders adapt to disruptions in traditional shipping routes and market access constraints.

Read: Iran war threatens Kenya’s Sh700bn Gulf trade

Kazakhstan has also posted considerable growth, with export volumes rising by 186.92 percent to 24.44 million kilogrammes during the year.

The jump reflects a shift in sourcing preferences in the Central Asian market, with Kenyan tea gaining ground against competing origins.

The TBK report attributes this to “shifting preference of the market to Kenya tea compared to teas from other origins,” underscoring the country’s competitiveness even in distant and previously underdeveloped markets.

These gains come as Kenya exported 652.8 million kilogrammes of tea in 2025 compared with 594.5 million kilogrammes in 2024, representing a 9.81 percent increase in volumes.

The rise was largely supported by stronger uptake across both traditional and emerging markets, as well as clearance of stocks carried over from previous years.

However, the strong performance in new markets has coincided with mixed fortunes in established destinations. While exports to Pakistan — the largest buyer — grew by nearly 13.99 percent, several traditional markets, including the United Kingdom, Russia, India, and Poland, recorded declines ranging between two and six percent.

In some cases, the slowdown has been linked to economic pressures and internal challenges in those countries, while in others it reflects increasing competition and changing consumption trends.

Sudan, once a key market and transit route, also registered a contraction, with exports falling by 13.56 percent to 5.34 million kilogrammes amid ongoing internal conflict that has disrupted trade flows. The decline has had ripple effects across the region, forcing buyers and exporters to seek alternative routes.

Despite the rise of new markets, Kenya’s tea exports remain highly concentrated, with the top 10 destinations accounting for 81.5 percent of total export volumes in 2025. This underscores the continued vulnerability of the sector to shocks in key markets amid efforts to diversify.

→ cmunda@ke.nationmedia.com

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