Kenyans are the most anxious about rising living costs in the aftermath of the Iran War, compared to other peers in Africa and Asia, underscoring the country’s vulnerability to external shocks.

A new survey by global research firm, GeoPoll, showed that 84 percent of Kenyans are ‘very concerned’ about a potential sharp rise in the cost of living as the US-Israel war with Iran raged on, putting pressure on key import-dependent items such as petroleum and fertiliser.

South Africa ranked second at 81 percent, followed by Pakistan (78 percent), Egypt (69 percent), and Nigeria (68 percent). Saudi Arabia recorded the lowest concern at 41 percent.

The findings highlight how global geopolitical tensions, particularly those affecting energy markets, are rapidly transmitting into household anxieties across emerging economies.

The survey points to fuel prices as a key transmission channel of the crisis. In Kenya, 33 percent of respondents cited high fuel prices as a major economic strain, second only to inflation at 44 percent.

Global oil market disruptions following the conflict could lead to increased transport and production costs, which would directly feed into consumer prices and amplify cost-of-living pressures.

Iran has, since last month, launched drone attacks on several oil refineries in the neighbouring Gulf countries and attacked at least 18 merchant ships along the Strait of Hormuz, in response to the US-Israel strikes.

The attacks have disrupted production and choked the critical Strait of Hormuz, significantly hindering the movement of fuel from the oil-rich region to markets including Kenya.

Kenya is already feeling the heat of potential inflation following the high cost of petroleum stocks purchased outside the Government-to-Government(G-2-G) supply contract with three Gulf oil majors.

For instance, a consignment shipped into Kenya by a marketing firm, quoted a premium of $290 (Sh37,691.3) per tonne, which is three times the $84 (Sh10,917.48) for a similar quantity of petrol under the G-to-G deal that Kenya signed with Saudi Aramco, Emirates National Oil Company and Abu Dhabi National Oil Company to supply products since March 2023.

Sources told Business Daily that the price of a litre of petrol could rise by at least Sh19 due to the high premium demanded by importers, given that the two cargo consignments imported outside the G-2-G deal will be part of those used in setting the monthly pump prices from April 15.

The State could, however, tap the subsidy programme to cushion consumers from steep prices.

This comes as Kenya’s inflation climbed to 4.4 percent in March, reversing the slight easing recorded in February and signalling renewed pressure on household budgets.

Kenya National Bureau of Statistics data shows annual inflation ticked up from 4.3 percent in February, driven largely by increases in food prices, which remain the most volatile and influential component of the consumer basket.

After peaking above 9 percent in 2022 and early 2023, inflation has remained largely below the Central Bank’s 5 percent midpoint target since mid-2024, easing to lows of about 2.7 percent before stabilizing around 4–4.6 percent in 2025.

With the surge in inflation in March, consumers in Kenya are certain to become more anxious about the higher cost of living, given the negative impact of the Iran conflict.

Across all countries surveyed by GeoPoll, inflation and cost of living rank as the single biggest concern (43 percent), followed by fuel prices (27 percent), reinforcing the central role of energy in shaping household sentiment.

Kenya’s profile, however, is distinct: great concern about living costs despite relatively stable inflation, pointing to structural affordability challenges such as income stagnation and high energy costs.

With global uncertainty still elevated, Kenya’s cost-of-living crisis is likely to persist in the near term. The survey findings signal that consumer confidence remains fragile, even as headline inflation improves.

→ jwaweru@ke.nationmedia.com

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